How Narrative Attacks Reshaped A Democracy: Venezuela’s 2024 Election Fallout

In a dramatic turn of events, Edmundo González Urrutia, the widely recognized winner of Venezuela’s 2024 presidential elections, fled the country on Saturday, September 7th en route to Spain. This development comes on the heels of weeks of political pressure and crackdowns from the authoritarian government of Nicolas Maduro, whose United Socialist Party of Venezuela has maintained a tight grip on power for over 25 years.

The July 28th presidential elections were mired in controversy, with the opposition providing compelling evidence in the form of written and digitalized vote tallies showing that González had won by a landslide. However, Maduro defiantly declared victory amidst widespread allegations of voter fraud and irregularities. The governments of the United States, the European Union, and most Latin American countries swiftly rejected Maduro’s claim and recognized González as the rightful president-elect.

LEARN MORE: What is a narrative attack?

Despite this international pressure, Maduro’s ironclad control over Venezuela’s judicial system and military has allowed him to cling to power from the presidential palace in Caracas. González’s decision to flee the country underscores the opposition’s precarious position and the challenges they face in trying to effect democratic change.

The PSUV’s 25-year reign, first under Hugo Chávez and now Nicolas Maduro, has been marked by the steady erosion of Venezuela’s democratic institutions. A key weapon in the regime’s arsenal has been disinformation campaigns, waged both online and through tight control over the country’s communication channels. In a recent move, the Maduro government banned X in Venezuela, but this comes after years of employing bot and troll farms on social media platforms to attack political rivals and amplify pro-government propaganda.

These tactics were on full display during the disputed 2018 presidential elections, which Maduro also claimed to have won. At the time, the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensics Lab identified networks of bots boosting the use of specific hashtags and amplifying posts attacking Juan Guaidó, another opposition leader now living in exile.

Understanding the truth behind misleading narratives is becoming increasingly difficult for organizations fighting to protect democracy. Using the Constellation Narrative Intelligence Platform and Compass by Blackbird.AI, our RAV3N Narrative Intelligence team identified five of the most popular but misleading narratives about the 2024 Venezuelan presidential elections.

LEARN MORE: 8 Ways for Security Leaders to Protect Their Organizations from Mis/Disinformation Attacks

Narrative #1: Venezuela held free and fair elections on July 28th 

Despite Maduro’s claims of a legitimate victory, Blackbird.AI’s analysis showed that pro-government troll networks and bot accounts heavily promoted this narrative. The reality is that multiple sources, including opposition leaders and international observers, reported widespread irregularities in the voting process. Blackbird.AI’s Compass Context Checker offered additional insights, showing that state-sponsored actors largely fabricated free and fair election claims.

Compass: https://compass.blackbird.ai/share/44UsQF8fMm 

Narrative #2: Pro-Maduro criminals broke into polling sites and stole ballot boxes on election day

Rumors of ballot box theft began circulating shortly after the election, with viral posts claiming that armed groups loyal to Maduro had stormed polling stations and stolen votes. Blackbird.AI’s analysis revealed that while some of these reports were based on real incidents, the scale of the alleged thefts was greatly exaggerated by anti-government influencers seeking to undermine confidence in the electoral process.

Compass: ​​https://compass.blackbird.ai/share/hsBGOPhZ17 

Narrative #3: Social platforms turned over the personal data of all Venezuelans to the opposition leaders 

This narrative, which spread rapidly on social media platforms, claimed that the messaging platform had shared Venezuelan users’ private data with opposition leaders to assist their political campaign. Blackbird.AI’s analysis found no credible evidence to support this claim and identified it as a classic example of disinformation designed to sow fear and confusion among the population.

Compass: https://compass.blackbird.ai/share/fHBKFa6Wgq 

Narrative #4: Venezuelan military leaders have called for Maduro to step down 

Reports of Venezuela’s military leadership demanding Maduro’s resignation were widely shared in the days following the election. However, Compass by Blackbird.AI found that these reports were part of a coordinated disinformation campaign to create the illusion of instability within the regime. In reality, the military has remained firmly loyal to Maduro, and there have been no credible signs of a potential coup.

Compass: https://compass.blackbird.ai/share/wpDZnR3lIc 

Narrative #5: Anti-government protesters in Venezuela are funded by the CIA and other US government interests

One of the most persistent narratives surrounding Venezuela’s opposition is the claim that protesters and opposition leaders are being funded and directed by the CIA and other U.S. government entities. This narrative, which plays into long-standing anti-American sentiments in the region, has been used by the Maduro regime to delegitimize opposition movements and portray them as foreign puppets. Blackbird.AI’s analysis found that while no credible evidence supports these claims, they are a powerful tool in the regime’s disinformation arsenal.

Compass: https://compass.blackbird.ai/share/U2lACRWcNM 

LEARN MORE: Social Media Misinformation and Disinformation Attack Readiness and Response Checklist

The Role of International Actors

As Venezuela teeters on the brink of a political crisis, the role of international actors has become increasingly significant. The United States, the European Union, and many Latin American countries have backed González, recognizing him as the legitimate president-elect. However, Maduro’s deep connections with Russia, China, and Iran complicate the situation, as these countries have provided political and economic backing to his regime.

For now, it remains unclear how the situation in Venezuela will unfold. While González’s escape to Spain has provided him with safety, it also raises questions about the future of the opposition movement and the possibility of a peaceful transfer of power.

Interestingly, Venezuela’s chaotic electoral process has also caught the attention of conservative influencers in the United States, who have drawn false equivalencies between Venezuela’s electoral turmoil and U.S. politics. Right-leaning commentators have seized upon the disinformation and confusion surrounding Venezuela’s elections to push their narratives about voter fraud and election integrity in the United States. These comparisons, while unfounded, serve to further muddy the waters of political discourse and contribute to the growing mistrust in democratic institutions.

LEARN MORE: TAG Infosphere Report: How Misinformation and Disinformation Represent a New Threat Vector

The Way Forward – Key Insights for Organization Leaders

The political crisis in Venezuela, marked by widespread disinformation and manipulation, offers valuable lessons for organization leaders navigating a world where information can easily be weaponized. Here are key insights to guide leaders in protecting their organizations and maintaining resilience in the face of misinformation:

• Prioritize Narrative Intelligence: Organizations must actively monitor the narratives surrounding their industries and operations. Just as the Venezuelan government used disinformation to control public perception, hostile actors may target businesses with misleading narratives. Tools like Blackbird.AI’s Constellation dashboard and Compass Context Checker can help identify and counteract false information early, allowing companies to respond effectively and maintain control over their reputations.

• Recognize the Power of Misinformation and Disinformation: The Maduro regime’s use of bot networks and troll farms highlights the scale and sophistication of modern disinformation campaigns. Business leaders should know that even subtle misinformation can damage brand trust, investor confidence, or stakeholder relationships. Implementing robust communication strategies to dispel false narratives swiftly is essential to maintaining credibility.
• Strengthen Crisis Communication Protocols: Clear and transparent communication is vital in times of crisis. As seen in Venezuela, unverified claims about election fraud and ballot box theft spread quickly, fueling unrest and distrust. Organizations facing internal or external crises must have robust communication plans to deliver factual and timely information to stakeholders, preventing misinformation from gaining traction.
• Develop and Invest in Data Protection: The false narrative that social media platforms shared user data with the Venezuelan opposition underscores the need for strong data protection policies. As disinformation often targets perceived vulnerabilities, organizations must invest in cybersecurity and transparent data management practices to safeguard their reputations and ensure the privacy of customers and employees.
• Foster Resilience Through Education: Employees and stakeholders should be educated on the dangers of disinformation and how to recognize it. By promoting digital literacy, organizations can build a more resilient workforce capable of identifying and neutralizing false narratives before they cause harm.

‍To learn more about how Blackbird.AI can help you with election integrity, contact us here.