Bolivia Coup Attempt Sparks Narrative Attacks

On June 26, General Juan José Zúñiga, who had recently been dismissed as the commander of the Bolivian Army, led troops and armored vehicles to storm the presidential palace in La Paz in an attempted coup d’etat. Zúñiga cited the country’s political and economic turmoil as his motivation, claiming he would not accept that former President Evo Morales would run for re-election as it is unconstitutional. However, Zúñiga ultimately ordered the troops to withdraw after international and domestic backlash. President Luis Arce, who faced significant political challenges, including low approval ratings and opposition from agenda-driven forces and his former mentor Evo Morales, managed to reassert control.

While the situation de-escalated, online speculation surged, sowing doubt about the motives of the coup. The Blackbird.AI RAV3N Narrative Intelligence team investigated the conversation immediately following the incident. Our team discovered narratives maligning theçthat frequently offered nefarious explanations for the Bolivia coup. Russian state supporters accounted for at or above 10% of posts in each narrative, suggesting the narratives were coordinated campaign efforts to undermine trust in the U.S. government.   

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Narrative 1: The United States orchestrated the coup 

Narratives emerged speculating on the United States’ involvement in the coup. Individuals contended that the U.S. government funded and orchestrated the overthrow of the Bolivian government, notably citing CIA involvement. They recalled previous alleged U.S.-backed coup attempts in Latin American countries, naming Costa Rica, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Panama, Pyraguia, Brazil, Peru, Chile, Uruguay, and Argentina.

Additionally, they noted that the United States government backed a previous coup in Bolivia in 2019. Many used the alleged history of involvement as confirmation of U.S. participation. Some mocked the U.S. for denouncing the coup, reiterating the belief that they orchestrated the incident, while others labeled the U.S. “anti-democratic” and “fascist.”  

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Narrative 2: Bolivia’s relations with BRICS threaten Western influence

Following allegations of U.S. involvement in the coup attempt, numerous presumed motives emerged. One claim suggested that the U.S. disapproved of Bolivia’s recent relations with BRICS members, primarily citing Russia and China. As a result, they speculated that the U.S. opted to replace the government with politicians aligned with their interests. They highlighted that Bolivia allegedly discussed potential projects with Russia in previous weeks and expressed interest in joining BRICS. Some asserted that the U.S. and its allies are becoming “desperate” as they lose “global influence,” forcing them to turn to violent attempts to regain it. This narrative showcased higher levels of Russian influence than the other narratives, as the Russian state supporter cohort accounted for 16% of all posts and contained moderate levels of bot-like activity, further demonstrating the coordinated campaign to undermine trust in the US. 

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Narrative 3: The U.S. targeted Bolivia to control the Lithium supply. 

Another narrative contended that the U.S. backed the coup to gain access and control of Bolivia’s abundant lithium supply. These individuals highlighted that Bolivia has 21 million tons of lithium reserves. They also called attention to an old post by Elon Musk where he purportedly replied to another post discussing the 2019 U.S.-backed coup where he said, “We will coup whoever we want! Deal with it.” Many interpreted this post as bragging about wanting to steal lithium from Bolivia. This sparked speculation that Musk wanted lithium for himself, presumably for his work with electric vehicles, while others suggested that Musk requested the coup. Meanwhile, some feared Bolivia could be targeted again for the sought-after element. Nearly 20% of posts in this narrative alleging the U.S. orchestrated the coup to control Lithium were circulated by Russian State Supporters attempting to tarnish the image of the U.S. government.

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Narrative 4: The U.S. is intentionally starting a war

In the aftermath of the coup, contentions formed, alleging the U.S. orchestrated the incident to start a war. Narratives criticized President Joe Biden for participating in the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, insinuating he is attempting to get the U.S. involved with South America next, stating the “American war machine never stops.” Others lamented over taxpayer dollars used in these conflicts and suggested the U.S. would start the conflict only to object to Bolivian migrants. Some claimed the attempted coup was meant to start a proxy war with Russia, alluding to a second coming of the Cold War. 

Narrative 5: The timing of the coup and Bolivia’s recent distancing from Israel is not a coincidence

Individuals noted the timing of unrest in Bolivia, highlighting how the coup coincidentally came after Bolivia condemned Israel for its actions in Gaza and cut off all relations. Narratives speculated the coup was retaliation from “zionists,” with some suggesting the U.S. and Israel are working together to align Bolivia with their interests again. They noted that Israel had allegedly participated in Latin American ploys previously; therefore, they likely did it again. Notably, this narrative flagged high levels of bot-like and pro-Russian activity, indicating the presence of inorganic conversation spreading doubt and speculation around the coup attempt.  

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The Way Forward

Narrative attacks can impact governments, enterprise firms, startups, and other organizations. Here are five key takeaways for business leaders and decision-makers.

Rapid Narrative Manipulation: The Bolivia coup attempt triggered a surge in online misinformation. Russian-backed accounts are amplifying conspiracy theories about U.S. involvement, showcasing how quickly narratives can be manipulated during crises.

Strategic Narrative Attack Campaigns: Multiple narratives emerged, including claims the U.S. orchestrated the coup to control Bolivia’s lithium reserves, highlighting how narrative attack campaigns can target geopolitical interests.

Impact on Public Perception: Russian state supporters effectively drove the conversation, influencing public perception and undermining trust in U.S. institutions, demonstrating the power of coordinated online efforts.

Need for Vigilance: The incident underscores the importance of monitoring and countering narrative attacks, particularly in volatile situations, to protect institutional credibility and prevent misinformation from shaping public discourse.

Tools for Mitigation: Leveraging tools like Blackbird.AI’s Constellation Narrative Intelligence Platform can help detect and respond to narrative risks, ensuring organizations stay ahead of maligning information during crises.

In the wake of the coup attempt, social media was flooded with curious minds and actors looking to shape the narrative. This created an environment vulnerable to manipulation. Russian state supporters quickly took control of the narrative and began driving discussion of U.S. involvement, frequently amassing large levels of engagement. This incident demonstrates how threat actors can influence conversation, shape public perception, sow confusion, and undermine the trust and credibility of institutions during a crisis. Tools such as Blackbird.AI’s Constellation Narrative Intelligence Platform can help detect and monitor these threats, allowing organizations and institutions to get ahead of the conversation to ensure clear and accurate information and prevent the spread of maligning narratives. 

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