Narrative Attacks and Manipulated Media Fuel Tensions in the West Philippine Sea

Tensions surrounding the West Philippine Sea escalated recently as authorities flagged the circulation of months-old footage from a June 2024 maritime confrontation, presented online as depicting recent incidents at Ayungin Shoal. The recycled video, which appeared to show the towing of the BRP Sierra Madre outpost and was released during PLA Day celebrations, highlights how competing narratives and information operations have become central to ongoing sovereignty disputes in one of the world’s most contested maritime zones, where control over the narrative may prove as significant as physical presence in these disputed waters.

Authorities emphasized that the footage in question is outdated, dating back to a June 2024 confrontation, when Chinese Coast Guard forces rammed, boarded, and damaged Philippine resupply boats. This incident left at least one Filipino sailor injured. The AFP called these tactics a coordinated campaign to manipulate public opinion and undermine trust in Philippine sovereignty. In response, officials urged the public to think critically, verify information, and rely solely on credible, verified sources of information. The following is a snapshot of current narratives shaping the West Philippine Sea dispute.

A Blackbird.AI analysis uncovered online narratives spanning five key themes: environmental concerns, alleged human rights violations, foreign influence accusations, policy corruption claims, and calls for maritime withdrawal. The BRP Sierra Madre, a grounded vessel serving as an outpost in the disputed waters, remains a focal point in these narrative disputes. Risk assessments indicate moderate concerns across reputational, operational, and diplomatic dimensions, as the 2016 Hague tribunal ruling continues to be contested through both maritime presence and information campaigns in this strategically significant region.

Narrative manipulations kept regional tensions boiling all summer and threatened long-term geopolitical and economic realignment. 

LEARN: What Is Narrative Intelligence?

Narrative Activity Overview

Over the past 30 days, online activity surrounding Ayungin Shoal has remained high, consistent with historical patterns observed during periods of heightened South China Sea tensions – indicating that the WPS remains an enduring battleground for narrative attacks. Conversations have spanned a range of themes — including environmental damage allegations, human rights accusations, narrative manipulation claims, and sovereignty disputes. 

• International/Geopolitical Influence:
  • Framing President Marcos Jr.’s reliance on US military support as a surrender of Philippine sovereignty.
  • Invoking past cases of U.S. alleged “abandonment” (notably citing Afghanistan, Vietnam, Syria, Iraq) to warn against trusting American security commitments.
  • Portraying U.S. military presence as turning the Philippines into a proxy in U.S.-China tensions, allegedly undermining neutrality.
  • Chinese state media is releasing old footage as “new” to support claims of towing a Philippine vessel at Ayungin Shoal. The release timed with PLA Day – a professional military holiday celebrated annually by the People’s Liberation Army, the military of China – potentially indicates a coordinated campaign.

Caption: This claim was context-checked by Compass by Blackbird.AI.

• Policy Influence & Corruption Claims:
  • Allegations of undisclosed deals between Philippine leaders and China regarding Ayungin Shoal.

Caption: This claim was context-checked by Compass by Blackbird.AI.

• Environmental Damage:
  • Philippine sources alleging coral reef destruction by Chinese maritime activity near Ayungin Shoal.

Caption: This claim was context-checked by Compass by Blackbird.AI.

• Human Rights Violations:
  • Accusations of violent and inhumane tactics by Chinese forces against Philippine troops.
  • Footage from June 17, 2024, fueling claims of excessive force and looting of Filipino supplies.

Caption: This claim was context-checked by Compass by Blackbird.AI.

• Association with Extremist Groups:
  • Claims that Chinese maritime forces aggressively pursued Filipino civilian vessels, with some labeling such actions as “terrorism.”

Caption: This claim was context-checked by Compass by Blackbird.AI.

• Protest, Demonstration & Boycott Calls:
  • Calls for China to withdraw from disputed maritime areas, citing overreach and mission blockades.

In summary, this period was marked by adverse narratives, particularly from Chinese state-linked media outlets. Key techniques included:

• Recycled content, such as the misleading “towing” footage related to the BRP Sierra Madre incident from June 2024.
• Strategic release timing, aligned with PLA Day, is likely to maximize symbolic impact.
• Multi-channel amplification, narratives pushed simultaneously across Chinese state media and high-reach social media platforms.

While these techniques are not new, the precision in timing and coordination points to a sustained and deliberate influence effort. 

Risk Assessment: Current Narrative Threat Levels

The overall risk rating across all tracked categories is medium:

• Reputational Risk: Moderate for Philippine maritime authorities, with potential to fuel domestic criticism and erode international credibility.
• Operational Risk: Moderate, driven by localized maritime disruptions and increased tensions during resupply operations.
• Diplomatic Risk: Moderate, with ongoing friction between Manila and Beijing and possible strain with other regional actors.

The Way Forward: Narrative Attack Tips for Organization Leaders

Establish Rapid Verification Protocols

Organizations facing sophisticated narrative attacks must first establish rapid verification protocols to counter misleading information before it takes root in public consciousness. This requires implementing real-time fact-checking systems capable of identifying recycled or manipulated content, such as the months-old footage from the West Philippine Sea that was recently repackaged as current events. Leaders should establish dedicated channels for official information dissemination and train their teams to identify coordinated timing patterns, especially when content is released during symbolic events or holidays that may signal orchestrated campaigns.

Monitor Multi-Channel Amplification Patterns

The second critical element involves monitoring multi-channel amplification patterns to detect coordinated influence operations. Organizations must track how narratives spread across state media, social platforms, and unofficial channels, watching for the precision timing and simultaneous deployment that characterizes deliberate campaigns. Establishing alert systems becomes essential when outdated content resurfaces and is presented as breaking news, as this recycling technique has proven particularly effective in the information warfare surrounding contested territories like Ayungin Shoal.

Proactively Shape the Narrative Before Crisis

Perhaps most importantly, organizations must proactively shape narratives before crises emerge, as reactive responses prove far less effective once adverse narratives have crystallized into public perception. This means developing messaging frameworks that address likely attack vectors. Building credible communication channels and trusted source relationships that can be activated quickly during information operations represents a fundamental shift from defensive to offensive narrative strategy, recognizing that in contested spaces, truth and credibility serve as vital components of organizational defense.

The Ayungin Shoal narrative ecosystem remains a cyclical contest for influence. No new high-severity threats have emerged, yet the persistence and coordination of adverse narratives demand vigilance. For policymakers, the challenge is clear: counter these narratives before they shape public perception.

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